Who benefits from online education? Exploring student outcomes in Italian higher education

In the last decade, the substantial expansion of online education in Italy has been accompanied by a growing public and institutional debate over its academic quality and effectiveness. This study contributes to this debate by investigating the differences in academic outcomes between students enrolled in online institutions and those in traditional universities, with a particular focus on first-year dropout. Using administrative data from the MOBYSU.IT database on the population of students enrolled in an Italian university between 2010 and 2019, we apply Propensity Score Matching to estimate the causal impact of attending an online institution. Our analysis shows that students in online universities are, on average, less likely to drop out after the first year. This retention effect is especially evident among students who enrol later in life, those from technical and vocational schools, and those from Southern Italy. Conversely, students entering university directly after high school are more likely to transfer to traditional institutions. These findings suggest that online universities can play a complementary role in reducing dropout and promoting access to higher education, particularly for non-traditional and underserved student populations.