When the Rains Fail: Climate Stress and Youth Migration in Madagascar

We analyze the association between climate shocks and internal migration among a cohort of young adults in Madagascar. We find that drought is associated with a reduction in the probability of migration of about one percentage point (approximately 23 percent relative to the baseline), with estimated effects persisting up to two years after the shock. The reduction is largest in magnitude among individuals aged 18–24, while estimated effects are smaller and more uncertain at younger and older ages. Heterogeneity analyses indicate larger estimated reductions among rural residents and low-asset households, and suggest differences across gender groups, with women exhibiting larger estimated reductions than men. When migration is disaggregated by motive, drought is associated with lower job-, education-, and marriage-related migration in the pooled sample. Gender-specific estimates indicate that this reduction is concentrated in job-related migration among men and in education- and marriage-related migration among women. Overall, the results indicate that drought is associated with lower short-term internal mobility and reduced use of migration as a strategy to improve livelihoods through employment, education, or marriage.