Value Change and the New Wave of Fertility Postponement in Western Europe

Since 2010, Western Europe has experienced a renewed wave of fertility postponement, contributing to declining fertility rates and rising childlessness. Although multiple explanations have been proposed, the role of ideational factors remains underexplored. This study examines whether broad changes in values help explain contemporary fertility postponement, drawing on the framework of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). We apply Schwartz's theory of basic human values to investigate trends in openness-to-change and conservation among women of childbearing age, assessing both aggregate changes over time and individual-level associations with having entered parenthood. Results show that these values are strongly associated with differences in entry into motherhood. However, the stability in value orientations over time suggests that values are unlikely to be a primary driver of the recent fertility postponement trend. Moreover, the relationship between values and entry into motherhood has remained unchanged, indicating that contemporary postponement extends across value orientations. Some regional heterogeneity emerges, with Southern Europe showing value shifts that may contribute to fertility postponement, though their overall influence appears limited. We conclude that broad shifts in SDT-related values are unlikely to explain the widespread fertility decline observed in Western Europe.