Climate–Agrifood–Conflict Nexus Pathways: A Scoping Review of the Literature

This paper reviews how climate-related shocks influence conflict through the agrifood system. Drawing on a scoping review and meta-analysis of studies published between 2014 and 2024, it shows that the climate–agrifood–conflict nexus is indirect, context-specific, and shaped mainly by two pathways: competition over natural resources and changes in agricultural productivity. The empirical literature points to a positive association of higher temperatures and drought with conflict, whereas precipitation effects vary in sign, and to strong heterogeneity across conflict type, crop-calendar phases, and institutional settings. The paper concludes by discussing the distinction between mediators and moderators, scarcity versus abundance, and priorities for more mechanism-oriented research.