Scenario discovery for a just low-carbon transition

There is currently no consensus among scholars on how to achieve a just low-carbon transition. To address this issue, this paper subjects a macrosimulation model to an extensive sensitivity analysis and then fits random forests to the simulation results to identify policy combinations that can reduce carbon emissions while promoting income equality. Our findings indicate that interventions aimed at supporting low-income groups result in an increase in these groups’ energy demand and emissions, and that this negative effect should be offset through a faster deployment of renewable energy sources and measures that redistribute income away from top earners.