Ecological filters across scales reveal spatial constraints for conservation-compatible coppice management in a Mediterranean lichen refugium

Coppice-with-standards systems are widely considered silviculturally sustainable, yet their compatibility with biodiversity conservation remains uncertain, particularly at the warm edge of species’ distributions. In a community-managed oak forest in Sardinia (Italy), we evaluated whether current management is compatible with the persistence of threatened oceanic-suboceanic epiphytic lichens. Specifically, we aimed to (i) quantify variation in predicted occurrence intensity along climatic and management gradients, (ii) identify multispecies high-intensity hotspots, and (iii) assess tree-level substrate constraints on occurrence. Occurrence intensity was modelled using species-specific effort-corrected Poisson point process models, with L. pulmonaria additionally contrasted against a climate-only baseline. Elevation and distance from the coast defined the suitability envelope, but management strongly modulated predicted occurrence intensity relative to climatic expectations. Minimally harvested and buffer stands maintained or slightly exceeded climate-based intensity (+23%), whereas tree-core stands showed moderate reductions (−27%) and scattered-tree stands exhibited pronounced declines (−69%), reducing predicted occurrence intensity to less than one third of mesoclimatic expectations. Top 10% predicted occurrence intensity areas were spatially aggregated and largely overlapping among species, with 32.9 ha classified within the top 10% of predicted occurrence intensity for all modelled occurrence surfaces. Between 75% and 89% of high-intensity areas overlapped with those of L. pulmonaria, indicating strong multispecies spatial convergence. For L. pulmonaria, occurrence probability increased most steeply at approximately 108 cm circumference, identifying structural thresholds for substrate suitability. These results indicate that climatic suitability alone does not ensure persistence: forest management acts as a structural filter that can maintain or substantially reduce occurrence intensity. Spatial conservation of multispecies hotspot areas may reconcile timber production with biodiversity conservation in Mediterranean marginal forests.