Rainfall patterns and related landslide incidence in the Porretta-Vergato region, Italy

An analysis of landslide occurrence in the low permeability terrain of Porretta-Vergato, Italy, related to prolonged rainfall patterns is presented. Data sets collected over nearly a century are statistically analysed. The pattern of the landslide hazard is considered and related to precipitation at the basin scale in order to enhance the understanding between the two parameters and assess their temporal changes, as well as interrelationships. Landslide incidence generally follows the periodic pattern of precipitation with a lag of approximately six months, which is believed to relate to the time necessary for the ground water to reach a critical level to initiate slope failure. There also appears to be a two-stage pattern of precipitation which induces most landslides: a preparatory period, where the landslide is destabilized and conditioned for slope failure, followed by a more intense period of rainfall that triggers or provokes the event. These initial findings point to the need for further studies to verify such unstable situations.