The upcoming first edition of Highway Safety Manual (HSM) will introduce safety predictive models both for road segments and intersections. A key issue for allowing HSM to become a standard for road owners and managers world wide is the transferability of the predictive models to different networks. The application of the HSM model calibration procedure to different countries has been evaluated outlining all the practical and potential application problems. In this study the HSM model calibration procedure has been applied to the road network of the Italian province of Arezzo in order to evaluate the effective transferability of this methodology to a region characterized by a different environment, road characteristics, driver behaviour and crash reporting systems as compared to the ones on which the HSM models have been developed. The considered road network covers 1,300 kilometres of rural two-lane highways located in the Arezzo province and a three years (2002-2004) accident database has been used. The considerable difference between the road network of the Italian province of Arezzo and the one of Minnesota, for which HSM model has been developed, causes practical application problems, mainly related to segmentation and overestimation of curvature effects, that will be discussed in the paper. Four different approaches to define the calibration factor have been applied and discussed to understand which one is the most effective. Finally this work points out the problems related to the identification of data needs and necessary treatments for the HSM model calibration and application.

Calibration of the Highway Safety Manual's Accident Prediction Model for Italian Secondary Road Network / F. Martinelli; F. La Torre; P. Vadi. - In: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD. - ISSN 0361-1981. - STAMPA. - 2103:(2009), pp. 1-9. [10.3141/2103-01]

Calibration of the Highway Safety Manual's Accident Prediction Model for Italian Secondary Road Network

LA TORRE, FRANCESCA;
2009

Abstract

The upcoming first edition of Highway Safety Manual (HSM) will introduce safety predictive models both for road segments and intersections. A key issue for allowing HSM to become a standard for road owners and managers world wide is the transferability of the predictive models to different networks. The application of the HSM model calibration procedure to different countries has been evaluated outlining all the practical and potential application problems. In this study the HSM model calibration procedure has been applied to the road network of the Italian province of Arezzo in order to evaluate the effective transferability of this methodology to a region characterized by a different environment, road characteristics, driver behaviour and crash reporting systems as compared to the ones on which the HSM models have been developed. The considered road network covers 1,300 kilometres of rural two-lane highways located in the Arezzo province and a three years (2002-2004) accident database has been used. The considerable difference between the road network of the Italian province of Arezzo and the one of Minnesota, for which HSM model has been developed, causes practical application problems, mainly related to segmentation and overestimation of curvature effects, that will be discussed in the paper. Four different approaches to define the calibration factor have been applied and discussed to understand which one is the most effective. Finally this work points out the problems related to the identification of data needs and necessary treatments for the HSM model calibration and application.
2103
1
9
F. Martinelli; F. La Torre; P. Vadi
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2158/364013
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