Can immigration solve the aging problem in Italy? Not really …

Immigration from the developing countries is beneficial for a rich, aging country. However, unless under extreme assumptions of very strong and temporary immigration of young guest workers (Gastarbeiter), its effects are modest and relatively short lived: after a while, immigrants too become older and retire; their fertility typically adapts rather quickly to the standards of the host country; and, in all cases, the share of foreigners increases very rapidly if immigrants must be a substitute for missing births. These intuitive considerations, here supported by the results of a set of simulations specifically tailored to the case of Italy, lead to the conclusion that immigration cannot counter aging, but only attenuate its extremes: structural adjustments, and fertility closer to replacement level, have no substitutes.