Supporting Product Design by Anticipating the Success Chances of New Value Profiles

Companies willing to introduce radical innovations have to face the tough task of correctly evaluating manifold aspects concerning the lifecycle of the new products to be launched. In such a circumstance severe difficulties arise because, atthe very beginning ofthe design process, projectteams own limited and unreliable information aboutthe performances viable to positively impact value for customers and consequently the commercial success. The present paper suggests an original approach for the anticipatory assessment ofthe expectedmarket appraisal of anew product profile. The proposed ‘‘Value Assessment Metrics’’ (VAMs) is a tool to estimate the success potential of a new artefact through a balance of its functionalities and features with respect to the alternatives existing in the market. The metrics are defined through an induction process from a large collection of successful innovations and market failures. After reporting the methodological approaches adopted to build the VAMs, the first based on Logistic Regression, the second on Neural Networks, the paper presents their preliminary validation and two example applications to the proposition of an innovative lipstick and a concealed hinge.