Spatio-temporal patterns of channel changes in response to a major flood event: the case of the Magra River (central – northern Italy)

On October 25th 2011, the Magra River (central–northern Italy) was affected by a significant flood event with an estimated return interval ranging from 30 to 200 years. This study investigates the morphological responses of the Magra River to this major flood event with the aims of (i) documenting the channel changes which occurred in response to the flood; (ii) analysing this response within the context of the historical trend of width changes; (iii) investigating the possible factors controlling the spatial pattern and the intensity of the observed changes. Significant channel widening was documented along the entire length studied (about 34 km), ranging from 3% to 90% of the pre- flood channel width. Braided reaches were characterized by the most severe planimetric changes. Although characterized by high rates of change, these variations are, however, amply included in the historical range of channel width variability over approximately the last 150 years (from 1877 to present day), and are comparable with ( though generally lower than) the channel width of the 1950s. Statistical analyses (simple and multiple regressions) between the observed changes in channel width and a series of selected morphological and hydraulic controlling factors showed no robust correlations to explain the spatial pattern and the variability of channel adjustments. Instead, major adjustments occurred along reaches characterized by the confluence of those streams draining the sub-catchments where the storm was concentrated.