Regional Differentiation and Farm Exit: A Hierarchical Model for Tuscany

We analyse the exit behaviour of Tuscan farms during the period 2000–2007 both at the farm and the territorial level. The study combines data from the 2000 National Census of Agriculture and three waves of the ‘Farm Structure Surveys’.The exit probability of the resulting sample, composed of 3,187 farms, is estimated through a Bayesian hierarchical probit model. Our results show that exits reflect the size and type of holdings. Likelihood of exit is higher in areas of higher population density that are not classified as ‘urban’ areas.