Debris flow hazard assessment by means of numerical simulations: implications for the Rotolon creek valley (Northern Italy)

On 4th November 2010, a debris flow detached from a large debris cover accumulated above the lowermost portion of the Rotolon landslide (Vicentine Pre-Alps, NE Italy) and channelized in the valley below within the Rotolon Creek riverbed. Such event evolved into a highly mobile and sudden debris flow, damaging some hydraulic works and putting at high risk four villages located along the creek banks. A monitoring campaign was carried out by means of a ground based radar interferometer (GB-InSAR) to evaluate any residual displacement risk in the affected area and in the undisturbed neighbouring materials. Moreover, starting from the current slope condition, a landslide runout numerical modelling was performed by means of DAN-3D code to assess the impacted areas, flow velocity, and deposit distribution of the simulated events. The rheological parameters necessary for an accurate modelling were obtained through the back analysis of the 2010 debris flow event. Back analysis was calibrated with all of the available terrain data coming from field surveys and ancillary documents, such as topographic, geomorphological and geological maps, with pre- and post-event LiDAR derived DTMs, and with orthophotos. Finally, to identify new possible future debris flow source areas as input data for the new modelling, all the obtained terrain data were reanalysed and integrated with the GB-InSAR displacement maps; consequently, new simulations were made to forecast future events. The results show that the integration of the selected modelling technique with ancillary data and radar displacement maps can be a very useful tool for managing problems related to debris flow events in the examined area.