COMPARISON BETWEEN OLD AND MODERN WHEAT VARIETIES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR A STUDY IN TUSCANY [CONFRONTO TRA VARIETÀ ANTICHE E MODERNE DI FRUMENTO NEL CONTESTO DEL CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO: RISULTATI PRELIMINARI DI UNO STUDIO CONDOTTO IN TOSCANA]

The prospected climate change in the Mediterranean basin, with an increase in temperatures and an irregular precipitation distribution, may negatively affect wheat development and productivity in the next decades. Despite their lower productivity, old wheat varieties present resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses for which they might be however comparable if not competitive to modern varieties in a context of climate change. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of climate change in old and modern soft wheat varieties in typical Tuscany wheat producer areas. To this, the process-based model SSM-Wheat was used to simulate wheat development and growth under present and two future periods according to the A1B SRES scenario. Despite precipitation reduction and temperature increased were prospected, the wheat yield seemed to increase significantly in the future because it will mature earlier, escaping of severe heat stress, and because of the CO2 concentration effects. Moreover, old soft wheat varieties seemed to be less sensitive to climate change than the modern one.