We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model is simple and needs only some few parameters to be calibrated.
A fractional model for the COVID-19 pandemic: Application to Italian data / Elisa Alòs, M.E. Mancino, Raúl Merino, Simona Sanfelici. - In: STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS. - ISSN 1532-9356. - STAMPA. - -:(2020), pp. 1-19. [10.1080/07362994.2020.1846563]
A fractional model for the COVID-19 pandemic: Application to Italian data
M. E. Mancino;
2020
Abstract
We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model is simple and needs only some few parameters to be calibrated.
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