The Impact of Narratives of the Future on Fertility Intentions in Norway

Objective: This study examines the effect of exposure to different economic narratives of the future on fertility intentions of Norwegian men and women with diverse employment situation and income. Background: Fertility patterns should not only be interpreted in relation to economic uncertainty conceptualized as objective constraints. One should also consider that subjective narratives of economic uncertainty may have a significant role in fertility decision making, with a likely different impact on men and women. Method: Data was collected from a controlled laboratory experiment in Norway (N=838). The participants were randomly assigned to read either a negative or a positive future economic scenario, while a control group was not assigned to any scenario. Results: The economic scenarios influenced the fertility intentions of the participants, with the negative scenario causing a clear decrease in fertility intentions. The effect of exposure to the scenarios is not or only in specific cases moderated by objective measures such as couple employment situation and income. There were no gender differences in the effect of exposure to the scenarios on fertility intentions. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that perceived economic uncertainty about the future does affect people’s fertility intentions and that fertility intentions are not only shaped by people’s current situation or past, but also by their subjective view of the future.