Media narratives of the economy and fertility

This PhD thesis presents an in-depth study of the relationship between the coverage of the economy in media news and individual fertility behaviors. Our key argumentation is that narratives of the economy conveyed by the media are crucial for understanding contemporary fertility dynamics, over and above the role of objective economic constraints. Individuals use these narratives to project themselves into an actionable imagined future and make decisions that may be relatively independent of their actual situation and structural constraints. We also posit that the media-conveyed narratives/fertility nexus is likely to be channeled by changes in the individual perception of the economy. Under conditions of economic uncertainty, the need for orientation of individuals increases. As a result, in Western countries the influence of media-conveyed narratives of the economy may be reinforced. We present the empirical investigation of two European country-cases: Italy and Germany. The economic conjuncture and fertility dynamics of the past decades set the two countries apart. Also, the welfare systems of Italy and Germany differ significantly: while Italy is a “familialistic” state wherein the family is the main welfare provider, Germany's system is conservative and emphasizes individual responsibility. The stark contrast between Italy and Germany is the main reason why these cases are particularly interesting to examine and compare. To address the Italian case, we combine individual-level data from the 2009 and 2016 releases of the nationally-representative Family and Social Subjects Survey with data on the coverage of the economy in the evening edition of the most-viewed newscast of Italian TV (TG1). As for Germany, we merge micro-data stemming from the German Socio-Economic Panel (18 waves from 2001 to 2018) with measures of the economic news coverage in German press and television programs with large audience. By means of linear probability panel regressions with individual fixed effects, our analysis reveals that both the incidence and tone of news on the state of the economy are associated with fertility behavior. An increase in the incidence of economic news out of all news is negatively correlated with the probability of conception. In the case of Germany, the association is stronger when considering the coverage of the economy in weekly magazines compared to other media sources. When the tone of economic news worsens, the probability of conception decreases, while its improvements are positively associated with the probability of conception. Interestingly, a positive media narrative of the economy is more important than a negative one in Italy, a country characterized by strong economic hardship. The opposite emerges for Germany, where the economic fabric is prosperous. Finally, our findings suggest that individual economic perceptions explain a small albeit not negligible part of the economic news/fertility nexus. These associations are statistically significant and substantially relevant net of traditional individual and contextual socio-economic correlates of fertility. The robustness of our results is ensured via several checks (e.g., removing correlates from the models or augmenting them with further controls) and different model specifications (e.g., event-history parity-specific analysis, random effects models, and logistic regressions). Overall, the study presented in this dissertation bolsters the claim that media-conveyed narratives of the economy influence fertility behavior of individuals in contemporary Western societies also by affecting their perceptions of the economy.