Identifying the COVID-19 Transmission Channels on Poverty and Food Security in Refugee-Hosting Districts of Uganda

It is well documented that COVID-19 increased poverty and food insecurity all over the world, especially in fragile contexts. However, it is still unclear how its effects were transmitted to these two outcomes. This paper aims to identify the mechanisms through which COVID-19 affected poverty and food insecurity in refugee-hosting districts in Uganda. We use path analysis with household fixed effects to identify the main pathways, differentiating between refugee and host households, and considering the heterogeneity among them in terms of income source (agricultural vs. non-agricultural households), and market position (food net-buyers vs. net-sellers vs. self-sufficient households). The analysis shows that COVID-19 significantly affected labour participation and increased food value chain disruption, increasing poverty and food insecurity. Refugees have been affected more than hosts by the COVID-19 direct and indirect effects. Host households could benefit from the increase in food prices, while refugees were mainly affected by the effect on the labour market. As expected, net-buyers are the group most affected by food value chain disruption and, along with non-agricultural households, the ones that were most affected in terms of food security.