Measuring Variation of Crop Production Vulnerability to Climate Fluctuations over Time, Illustrated by the Case Study of Wheat from the Abruzzo Region (Italy)

Short-term climate fluctuations can have a significant impact on the stability of food resource prices, thus threatening food security, even in cases where the crop production system shows good adaptation to climate change and/or increasing average yields over time. This paper illustrates, in detail, a statistical approach aimed at verifying whether the variation of the crop production system vulnerability to climate fluctuation exhibits a trend over time. These methods were applied to the case study of wheat grown in the Abruzzo region (Italy). The results show that, although the wheat crop yield still shows ongoing growth, the correlation between climate fluctuations and yield oscillations exhibits a systematic increase over the past sixty years. Such an increase in climate-related production fluctuations may represent a disturbing element for market equilibria and be potentially harmful for the various economic subjects involved at various scales, such as producers, distributors, investors/financial traders, and final consumers. The statistical approach illustrated provides a framework for monitoring climate impacts and also provides the basis for building up statistical forecasting models to support informed decision making in agricultural management and financial planning.