The European Union’s Policy of Rule of Law Conditionality in the Western Balkans: Design, Effectiveness and Future Directions

This thesis is about the EU policy of the rule of law as a conditionality in the EU Enlargement process with the special focus in the Western Balkan countries. The key purpose is to explore and assess the rationale, adequacy and effectiveness of the EU’s policy of conditionality in the specific sphere of rule of law. In answering this question, we rely on a carefully balance a set of doctrinal and normative insights. Thus, the thesis provides a general historical overview of the rule of law concept capturing the most important academic debates therein, reflecting that there is no single, universally agreed upon rule of law definition thus remaining a contested, multidimensional concept shaped by legal, historical, and political contexts. The research further dives into EU’s intensified policy efforts to define the core meaning and core elements of the rule of law, identifying different ways it is defined, used and enforced internally and externally. By building on the academic research and professional debates, the thesis provides perspectives on ‘EU’s understanding’ as to how and when the rule of law criteria is fulfilled, in the long list of requirements for EU membership. The practical terrain for this exercise is the Western Balkan countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The central claim of this thesis is that, while the EU increasingly treats rule of law as a core value and the nominal “first and last” condition of accession, its operationalisation remains declarative. The Union lacks baselines, thresholds, and transparent benchmarks that would allow progress to be measured consistently and linked causally to accession decisions. The thesis conceptualises rule of law primarily as a value rather than a fixed and properly defined checklist. As a value, it travels across contexts and policy fields in the EU. This conceptual flexibility, as concluded by the thesis, is not itself a flaw but without structured measurement, it weakens the precision and predictability of enforcement. Key findings of the thesis reflect a clear measurement gap pertaining to the rule of law. This means that EU reporting is predominantly event driven and descriptive of rule of law developments rather than baseline driven and outcome measured. Labels such as ‘some progress’ or ‘moderately prepared’ are not tied to public thresholds, making country to country comparison difficult. In addition, there is no demonstrable causal chain across the WB6 in the sense that similar or better rule of law signals do not reliably predict movement in clusters/chapters. The thesis warns for a politicisation risk of the rule of law. The EU revised methodology promise of credibility, predictability, dynamism, and political steer has practically amplified the discretion of the EU institutions and, especially, EU Member States. In this regard e absence of public benchmarks, RoL conditionality can be instrumentalised, thus accelerating some candidates while blocking the others without a transparent evidentiary trail. Moreover, the thesis finds out a clear comparability deficit as an essential element especially since candidates countries of the Wester Balkans are partly monitored alongside EU Member States. This is shown in the rule of law annual cycle and enlargement track still employing heterogeneous evidence bases and non standardized labels. This thesis strives to provide an original contribution to improve the EU’s current policy and practice in the rule of law as a requirement for EU membership. It reframes rule of law a value requiring operational scaffolding to be decision shaping, not merely declarative political ideal. In this sense, it demonstrates a practical gap between reported rule of law developments and the accession steps in the long and difficult journey of the Western Balkan countries towards EU membership, if it ever happens. The thesis tries to make a modes contribution by providing a few practical proposal with the intention to make the rule of law, as a criteria for EU membership, a practical and transparent tool that is credible, measurable, and less vulnerable to politicization both during and after the completion of the accession process. Without a proper system of transparent benchmarks, rule of law conditionality cannot anchor decisions and it invites arbitrariness and erodes trust, both in the Western Balkan region and inside the EU and its Member States.