L’inferenza dell’intento genocidario nel caso di Gaza: rigore metodologico, standard probatorio e rilievo sistemico delle commissioni d’inchiesta

This article examines the inferential reconstruction of genocidal intent in light of the Conference Room Paper (CRP.3) issued by the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel. It argues that the alleged confusion between the judicial evidentiary standard developed by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the investigative standard applied by commissions of inquiry rests on a conceptual misunderstanding. The ‘only reasonable inference’ test is analysed as a logical method of reasoning distinct from the evidentiary threshold required to support a binding judicial decision. Through a case study concerning one of the sections of the CRP.3, the destruction of the reproductive capacity of the Palestinian population in Gaza, the article demonstrates that the Commission applied a robust inferential method while operating within the investigative standard of ‘reasonable grounds to conclude’. A comparative examination of other UN commissions of inquiry addressing genocide (Darfur, Myanmar, Syria) shows that the tension between inferential techniques and evidentiary standards is structural rather than occasional. The article further explores the systemic role of UN commissions of inquiry within the broader institutional framework of genocide adjudication, including the interaction with ICJ proceedings and the obligations of third States under the Genocide Convention. It concludes that investigative bodies do not anticipate judicial determinations but contribute to structuring the legal framework within which courts exercise their jurisdiction.