Assessment of weather impact on Durum wheat and forecasting of grain yield and quality

The current study focused on forecasting and monitoring of durum wheat productions in Val d’Orcia (Tuscany region), with the following objectives: Objective 1. Evaluate the impact of temperature and water conditions on grain yield and GPC. Objective 2. Assess the performance of the complex crop model CERES-Wheat in the simulation of yield and GPC and in determining of key growth stages and of weather variables with greatest effect on the harvest. Objective 3. Revisit the algorithms adopted by CERES-Wheat for GPC simulation and carry out a diagnosis to trace the model deficiencies. Objective 4. Set up forecasting indices suitable for operational applications at farm level, and able to provide information about the quantity and quality of the harvest in order to assist with the application of late fertilization. Objective 5. Assess the improvement in the yield and GPC simulations by crop model due to the integration with RS data, based on a relatively simple procedure for the model output spatialization. Objective 6. Compare the performance of the satellite imagery related to RS indices in the monitoring of yield and GPC variability and trace the deficiencies in GPC description.