The Dynamics of Tourist Flows: Heterogeneity and Spatial Association

In this paper, we analyse the evolution of tourist flows in Tuscany from 2000 to 2013, in order to detect the presence of a common trend in the arrival rate across the municipalities. In particular, two methodologies are used: the Harberger diagram to highlight the size and heterogeneity of the individual contribution to the overall change in arrivals, and the Moran correlation index, based on a queen grid, to detect the existence of different kinds of spatial dependence. The local Moran correlation index (LISA) is used to identify the presence of any territorial clusters in the period of interest. The aim of the study is to find some instruments to investigate the level of territorial similarities and/or complementarity that can be useful for the private and public policies to improve tourism and to evaluate the impacts of the interventions. The approach used in this paper seems useful, also if further assessments are needed.