Bayesian characterization of transformation uncertainty for strength and stiffness of sands

This paper focuses on the Bayesian probabilistic modelling of uncertainty in the evaluation of drained sand strength (i.e., friction angle) and stiffness of natural sands in-situ, as evaluated using the cone penetration test (CPT), and on the probabilistic prediction of loading-induced settlements. For the sand strength, two special datasets are compiled from undisturbed (frozen) sands that were tested in triaxial compression following thawing. For stiffness, equivalent Young’s moduli were back-calculated from full-scale footing load tests on sands via elastic continuum theory. Transformation uncertainty is parameterized by means of model factors, which can be directly implemented in geotechnical limit state design for any user-defined target reliability level.