Political Transitions and Macro-level Foundations of Political Stability

Why do some political transitions end peacefully while others give rise to instability and conflict? Starting from the ‘Third Wave’ of democratization in the Seventies, an optimist outlook has traditionally accompanied the demise of authoritarian regimes, and the idea of ‘exporting democracy’ possibly represents the peak of such position. Yet, conflicts that ensued the end of the Communist bloc, failed transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa, and post-regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq in the new century, showed that authoritarian regimes’ crises can lead to further instability. Through a newly-compiled database of political transitions and crises embracing the period 1975–2009, this contribution shows the relative impact of domestic social, economic and political factors, as well the role of international action. The piece also contributes to the analysis of ‘stability’ through a macro, large-N perspective, fostering dialogue between qualitative and quantitative research agendas on the topic.