The URGET VADEMECUM 2030–2050 Project: Applying Threshold Theory to Sustainable Urban Mobility

This paper describes the essential methodological structure of the URGET VADEMECUM 2030–2050 project, funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research as a Research Project of National Interest (PRIN, Progetto di Ricerca di Interesse Nazionale). It aims to develop an innovative step-by-step assessment methodology to support local policy-making and the allocation of funding in selecting the most efficient and cost-effective measure packages, according to the specific urban context, to achieve European decarbonisation and sustainability targets in Italian cities and towns. It was launched recently, in October 2023, and its methodology is based on the combined use of evaluation and mobility methodologies to provide local administrations with a decision-support tool for the choice of measures and actions. Threshold Theory, Cluster Analysis, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis are the three methodologies involved. With the project still at a very early stage, this paper presents its essential methodological outline, focusing on its elements of innovativeness. These reside in the revival and semantic renovation of Threshold Theory: based on the concept of threshold cost, this evaluation methodology allows the interpretation of a phenomenon’s subsequent development stages as an irregular process, characterised by static and dynamic thresholds whose passing are associated with threshold cost, which must be spent due to endogenous or exogenous diseconomies. Moreover, the support of Multicriteria Analysis will allow for the determination of the correct weights and parameters to choose from. Cluster Analysis will aggregate continuous results into definite arrays with thresholds at their boundaries.