Sea level rise projections: risk and impacts on populations in the Mediterranean basin

Extreme Sea Level Rise (ESLR) refers to the significant elevation in ocean levels driven by climate change and other anthropogenic and geophysical factors. This phenomenon poses a substantial threat to coastal populations, particularly as climate change accelerates the rate of sea level rise. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing climate change causes are essential to slowing ESLR and minimizing its impacts on coastal communities. However, achieving significant global reductions in GHG emissions is a complex, long-term endeavour. As a result, many coastal regions, and even some inland areas, will inevitably face the impacts of ESLR sooner or later, with certain areas being more vulnerable due to their land use and topography. Currently, numerous institutions have modelled ocean volume expansion at various geographical scales. However, to the best of our knowledge, a spatially explicit, detailed map illustrating the potential impacts of ESLR on the European population is not freely available. This study aims to create geographically detailed datasets that depict the inland extent of ESLR impacts under future climate change conditions, focusing on the Atlantic coast of Europe and the Euro-Mediterranean basin. By integrating ESLR projections under IPCC 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, our estimates reveal that ESLR poses a significant threat to coastal populations. The data indicates that, on average, the potential impact on human settlements is substantial. The study identifies that between 2050 and 2100, ESLR could affect areas where millions reside, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive strategies to protect vulnerable populations and mitigate the adverse effects of rising sea levels.