How Much Does Landscape Preservation Cost? Income Gap and Policy Benchmarks for Mediterranean Olive-Growing Systems

Traditional olive groves are widely recognised as providers of landscape, environmental and cultural public goods in Mediterranean rural areas, but their long-term economic viability remains uncertain. This study assesses the income gap between traditional, intensive and super-high-density (SHD) olive-growing systems in a representative hill olive-growing area in Tuscany (central Italy), characterised by physical and structural conditions typical of traditional Mediterranean systems. Using a discounted cash-flow framework, the analysis compares long-term financial performance through standard investment appraisal indicators and uses the Equivalent Annual Value (EAV) as a policy-relevant benchmark for calibrating support. The results reveal a clear structural divergence: while intensive and SHD systems achieve higher profitability and faster capital recovery, the traditional system exhibits a persistent income disadvantage under market conditions. The estimated EAV gap amounts to approximately 950 €/ha relative to the intensive system and 3104 €/ha relative to the SHD system—values that represent the additional annual support required to preserve traditional olive groves and prevent abandonment. These values can also be interpreted as the annual private opportunity cost of maintaining traditional olive landscapes rather than converting them to more financially competitive systems. Break-even analysis further shows that the traditional system requires an oil price of at least 9.6 €/kg to achieve economic viability without public support, compared to 6.97 €/kg and 4.13 €/kg for the intensive and SHD systems, respectively. The findings highlight a structural misalignment between private profitability and social value, suggesting that the conservation of traditional olive landscapes cannot rely on market mechanisms alone and requires targeted, evidence-based policy instruments