Recent smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 among individuals with recent respiratory symptoms

Gerkin, R. C.; Ohla, K.; Veldhuizen, M. G.; Joseph, P. V.; Kelly, C. E.; Bakke, A. J.; Steele, K. E.; Farruggia, M. C.; Pellegrino, R.; Pepino, M. Y.; Bouysset, C.; Soler, G. M.; Pereda-Loth, V.; Dibattista, M.; Cooper, K. W.; Croijmans, I.; Di Pizio, A.; Ozdener, M. H.; Fjaeldstad, A. W.; Lin, C.; Sandell, M. A.; Singh, P. B.; Brindha, V. E.; Olsson, S. B.; Saraiva, L. R.; Ahuja, G.; Alwashahi, M. K.; Bhutani, S.; D'Errico, A.; Fornazieri, M. A.; Golebiowski, J.; Hwang, L. D.; Ozturk, L.; Roura, E.; Spinelli, S.; Whitcroft, K. L.; Faraji, F.; Fischmeister, F. Ph. S.; Heinbockel, T.; Hsieh, J. W.; Huart, C.; Konstantinidis, I.; Menini, A.; Morini, G.; Olofsson, J. K.; Philpott, C. M.; Pierron, D.; Shields, V. D. C.; Voznessenskaya, V. V.; Albayay, J.; Altundag, A.; Bensafi, M.; Bock, M. A.; Calcinoni, O.; Fredborg, W.; Laudamiel, C.; Lim, J.; Lundstrom, J. N.; Macchi, A.; Meyer, P.; Moein, S. T.; Santamaria, E.; Sengupta, D.; Dominguez, P. R.; Yanik, H.; Hummel, T.; Hayes, J. E.; Reed, D. R.; Niv, M. Y.; Munger, S. D.; Parma, V.; Boesveldt, S.; de Groot, J. H. B.; Dinnella, C.; Freiherr, J.; Laktionova, T.; Marino, S.; Monteleone, E.; Nunez-Parra, A.; Abdulrahman, O.; Ritchie, M.; Thomas-Danguin, T.; Walsh-Messinger, J.; Abri, R. A.; Alizadeh, R.; Bignon, E.; Cantone, E.; Cecchini, M. P.; Chen, J.; Guardia, M. D.; Hoover, K. C.; Karni, N.; Navarro, M.; Nolden, A. A.; Mazal, P. P.; Rowan, N. R.; Sarabi-Jamab, A.; Archer, N. S.; Chen, B.; Di Valerio, E. A.; Feeney, E. L.; Frasnelli, J.; Hannum, M. E.; Hopkins, C.; Klein, H.; Mignot, C.; Mucignat, C.; Ning, Y.; Ozturk, E. E.; Peng, M.; Saatci, O.; Sell, E. A.; Yan, C. H.; Alfaro, R.; Cecchetto, C.; Coureaud, G.; Herriman, R. D.; Justice, J. M.; Kaushik, P. K.; Koyama, S.; Overdevest, J. B.; Pirastu, N.; Ramirez, V. A.; Roberts, S. C.; Smith, B. C.; Cao, H.; Wang, H.; Birindwa, P. B.; Baguma, M.

doi:10.1093/chemse/bjaa081

In a preregistered, cross-sectional study, we investigated whether olfactory loss is a reliable predictor of COVID-19 using a crowdsourced questionnaire in 23 languages to assess symptoms in individuals self-reporting recent respiratory illness. We quantified changes in chemosensory abilities during the course of the respiratory illness using 0–100 visual analog scales (VAS) for participants reporting a positive (C19+; n = 4148) or negative (C19−; n = 546) COVID-19 laboratory test outcome. Logistic regression models identified univariate and multivariate predictors of COVID-19 status and post-COVID-19 olfactory recovery. Both C19+ and C19− groups exhibited smell loss, but it was significantly larger in C19+ participants (mean ± SD, C19+: −82.5 ± 27.2 points; C19−: −59.8 ± 37.7). Smell loss during illness was the best predictor of COVID-19 in both univariate and multivariate models (ROC AUC = 0.72). Additional variables provide negligible model improvement. VAS ratings of smell loss were more predictive than binary chemosensory yes/no-questions or other cardinal symptoms (e.g., fever). Olfactory recovery within 40 days of respiratory symptom onset was reported for ~50% of participants and was best predicted by time since respiratory symptom onset. We find that quantified smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 amongst those with symptoms of respiratory illness. To aid clinicians and contact tracers in identifying individuals with a high likelihood of having COVID-19, we propose a novel 0–10 scale to screen for recent olfactory loss, the ODoR-19. We find that numeric ratings ≤2 indicate high odds of symptomatic COVID-19 (4 < OR < 10). Once independently validated, this tool could be deployed when viral lab tests are impractical or unavailable.

Recent smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 among individuals with recent respiratory symptoms / Gerkin R.C.; Ohla K.; Veldhuizen M.G.; Joseph P.V.; Kelly C.E.; Bakke A.J.; Steele K.E.; Farruggia M.C.; Pellegrino R.; Pepino M.Y.; Bouysset C.; Soler G.M.; Pereda-Loth V.; Dibattista M.; Cooper K.W.; Croijmans I.; Di Pizio A.; Ozdener M.H.; Fjaeldstad A.W.; Lin C.; Sandell M.A.; Singh P.B.; Brindha V.E.; Olsson S.B.; Saraiva L.R.; Ahuja G.; Alwashahi M.K.; Bhutani S.; D'Errico A.; Fornazieri M.A.; Golebiowski J.; Hwang L.D.; Ozturk L.; Roura E.; Spinelli S.; Whitcroft K.L.; Faraji F.; Fischmeister F.Ph.S.; Heinbockel T.; Hsieh J.W.; Huart C.; Konstantinidis I.; Menini A.; Morini G.; Olofsson J.K.; Philpott C.M.; Pierron D.; Shields V.D.C.; Voznessenskaya V.V.; Albayay J.; Altundag A.; Bensafi M.; Bock M.A.; Calcinoni O.; Fredborg W.; Laudamiel C.; Lim J.; Lundstrom J.N.; Macchi A.; Meyer P.; Moein S.T.; Santamaria E.; Sengupta D.; Dominguez P.R.; Yanik H.; Hummel T.; Hayes J.E.; Reed D.R.; Niv M.Y.; Munger S.D.; Parma V.; Boesveldt S.; de Groot J.H.B.; Dinnella C.; Freiherr J.; Laktionova T.; Marino S.; Monteleone E.; Nunez-Parra A.; Abdulrahman O.; Ritchie M.; Thomas-Danguin T.; Walsh-Messinger J.; Abri R.A.; Alizadeh R.; Bignon E.; Cantone E.; Cecchini M.P.; Chen J.; Guardia M.D.; Hoover K.C.; Karni N.; Navarro M.; Nolden A.A.; Mazal P.P.; Rowan N.R.; Sarabi-Jamab A.; Archer N.S.; Chen B.; Di Valerio E.A.; Feeney E.L.; Frasnelli J.; Hannum M.E.; Hopkins C.; Klein H.; Mignot C.; Mucignat C.; Ning Y.; Ozturk E.E.; Peng M.; Saatci O.; Sell E.A.; Yan C.H.; Alfaro R.; Cecchetto C.; Coureaud G.; Herriman R.D.; Justice J.M.; Kaushik P.K.; Koyama S.; Overdevest J.B.; Pirastu N.; Ramirez V.A.; Roberts S.C.; Smith B.C.; Cao H.; Wang H.; Birindwa P.B.; Baguma M.. - In: CHEMICAL SENSES. - ISSN 0379-864X. - ELETTRONICO. - 46:(2021), pp. 0-0. [10.1093/chemse/bjaa081]